Business of Tourism : Extent of tourism in numbers - the T/P Ratio

Overtourism is the current rage in the travel, tourism, government and social circles. There are cities being overwhelmed by visitors in particular months and empty in others; there are protests and water being squirted over tourists ( which is sad because tourists cant be blamed for local policies that enable them to arrive!).

That said , I thought it would be interesting to gauge from numbers exactly how bad is the problem of over tourism. I compiled a few numbers (see table) from various sources - the Ministry of Tourism India (2022 data) , UN tourism site, Euromonitor, Statista, ET, TOI, The Guardian, CNN and a few others). 

The "T/P ratio" is essentially simply Tourist- to- Population ratio. Just my way to grasp the scale of the issue. 

Not surprisingly, western Europe has some T/P  ratios that could be called alarming. The point here is that not all these millions are leisure travelers. Quite a large component will be business arrivals too. Still, the numbers are huge in already huge cities. Istanbul, for example, gets 25% more visitors thru its gates in a year than its resident population. London, nearly 2x, and Barcelona, the current hot topic, 37 % more than its population. These are serious enough "overruns" to stress out people, resources like water and sanitation, as well as transport. ( populations are measured differently in different cities - some take in only metro city areas; some the wider metro area including suburbs, but the core purpose of the analysis remains good). 

numbers in millions.
Sources: Euromonitor, Statista,
WTTO, UN Tourism Dashboard, media reports,
TOI, ET, Guardian, CNN

India : big on population, low on tourism

Ironically, in the second half of the table, you can see how under-developed India is on the tourism scale. India gets less than 1.7% of global tourism, and its FTA (Foreign Tourist Arrivals) are about 9 mn. Basically, the whole, huge subcontinent of India , one of the oldest and most diverse cultures on Earth, gets less tourist arrivals than any one of the cities in the table! 

India has tremendous potential for tourism - both domestic and international. There are some clear concerns, but they pertain to infrastructure, costs, general perception of safety, and that India is destination by itself requiring much time and planning). 

There's essentially no concern on overtourism for India! As it is, Indian cities are densely populated. A few million more may not even be noticed! 

Business of Tourism : What enables over tourism?

Over tourism remains a topic of great debate. in an earlier post, I tried to understand what could be done about it (taxes, phase out, new destinations and so on) .  Here, I wanted to explore another closely related issue : permissions and approvals.

Its easy and convenient to say tourists mess up , clog up and in general ruin the place.  That in itself is a broad generalization and not always true. 

But how and what enabled so many to visit so many areas for so many days? 

Some key factors: local authorities, logistics and prosperity.  

To start with, isn't it local authorities ( municipalities, state governments and national ministries) who allow the proliferation of short stay apartments? 

How does a tourist enable / force / cause flats or apartments to be converted into short stay tourism accommodation without active support,  frame work and planning by landlords and city authorities? 

Does a tourist have any say in housing or zoning or public transport policies of the destination? Clearly, no. 

In all the arguments raging across media, I don't find much debate on the role of authorities in allowing the shift of housing for locals into short stay for tourists (Barcelona did say they would ban all short stays, but after 4 years).  They welcomed the money that came in ( both local landlords who rented out and governments who got taxes and income).  

But perhaps it went overboard?

No one fault can be pinpointed here - it is the responsibility of authorities to grow their economies, and they simply used one economic lever. But then to turn around and blame transient visitors  almost entirely for this problem is a bit rich. Local protestors would be aware of this. Surely they would be asking hard questions of their administrators. 

The other enabler is of course, logistics or access. The expansion of low cost airlines suddenly opened up new destinations otherwise out of budget. Here again, landing / docking rights are the economic assets of the destination-its entirely there prerogative to control them. The tricky balance is to get more money in, without messing up the works- economic, cultural, business. 

The third enabler is the growing prosperity of the middle classes elsewhere in the world that puts more money and enables them to travel, supported by vastly expanded air, sea and road links. In India, at least, foreign travel is no longer a luxury, The moment the young people have excess funds and/ time, they will travel. Its just part of being the new Global Indian culture and imagery that has crystalized over the past decade. And India isnt even the largest source markets for many tourism-troubled destinations- not yet. 

Just look at India only (not even that other big source market - China) . 1400 mn people- of which the middle class would be 500mn. To put that into perspective- that would be more than the population of Scandinavia and most European countries, and quite big chunks of S/ S E Asia as well! Even if 10% of these 500mn are able to travel, that's 50mn. Europe holds the pride of place for every Indian- and even within Europe, certain destinations are always top of the list- Switzerland, UK, Spain, Portugal, Italy for sure, Next layer for the more discerning would be eastern and central Europe, and for the jaded Indian, Scandinavia/ Iceland. 

Another interesting aspect is FOMO - the fear of missing out in travel and tourism. Just consider India again. With 65% of its population below 30 years and infrastructure still shoddy for tourism, the longing for the "first world lifestyle" means that a whole mass of people are traveling- and putting on social media that " they made it" . That perfect insta photo/ that perfect facebook post. It all adds to the allure of travel. Its a good thing in many ways for Indians - exposure, style, perspective, confidence. But only if done correctly.

The fourth enabler I would say are the investments into the tourism infrastructure by a lot of players, from hotels, to transport, to F&B and governments. The rapid expansion of chain hotels and Air B&B stays opened up vast accommodation options and allowed more stays for longer. Its a matter of another debate if hotels are better for a city or short stay rentals. Hotels are usually more expensive but offer a control point for the destination. 

In sum, it was a perfect conjunction of circumstances and enablers that drove excessive tourism numbers. There are hard solutions in hand, and some soft, long term. But perhaps the travel industry will find its right, if an uneasy and flexible, balance sooner than later! 

Business of Tourism: Over Tourism causes consternation, concern and chaos

There's a lot of debate and discussion on " over-tourism" these days, on the Internet, print and social media. 

Its a complex subject. On one hand, tourism brings in much needed funds into local economies, helping for services and maintenance, allowing governments to subsidize citizens costs. Clearly, London's museums couldn't be free if the city didn't get so many visitors ( Or may be called "spenders'). Likewise, the big gems of tourism- Barcelona, Paris, Amsterdam or Venice, Athens in Europe amongst others. But for every city overrun in Europe, there are tons of others in Asia, the USA and Africa who would love to have (even if temporarily!) the tourism dollars. 

Tourism injects life, vigour, a virtuous investment cycle, jobs, general good feeling, and yes, often times, is a strategic tool in the political or economic arsenal. 

But there are definitely downsides. Too much of a good thing can be a problem. 

Over tourism I believe generally kicks in when local culture, life patterns and services begin to change or bend to the needs and demands of a transient population which attains critical mass to actually cause these changes, and infrastructure ominously breaches the limits it was designed for faster than can be replaced or enhanced. When the local citizen finds no seat on his own city's trams or buses ( as we saw several times across Europe). Or when the local restaurants change menus to accommodate global tastes rather than offer local cuisine, when standardization rather than uniqueness becomes rampant. 

I don't come from a city or nation which suffers from any sort of over tourism, but we actually suffer from "over- population" which , if you think of it, is the same issue as over tourism- and you cant even ban airlines or cruise ships- its there, permanently, every time, every day.  In fact, Indians I believe generally visit the "first world" to experience less crowding, clean air, weather, superb infrastructure and cleanliness! 

While over tourism and over crowding are two sides of the same coin, the approaches and solutions have to be very different.  

Discussing over tourism solutions this time : 

1. Marketing can be used to phase out visits. Not always possible because of weather and vacations. 

2. Entry barriers - visa issuances can be controlled. Easiest method, but could have political and economic repercussions. 

3. Cost barriers- simply make it more expensive, which would filter out the marginal, low and budget categories, but that could be seen as unfriendly, and discriminatory (which it could well be). Cost barriers could be higher taxes, expensive room rates, differential public transport and entrance fees (which does create resentment). It could well be the entrance fees like Venice tried ( But travelers simply adjust mentally to a higher cost plane and kept coming). 

4. Open new areas : could spread the numbers across the land, but presumably, could get overwhelmed as well - necessitating newer areas every few years. Not easy. 

5. Other destinations develop- this could well cause diversion of tourism permanently and cause economic damage. This has started in Vietnam and Cambodia, which have started taking in more Indians diverting from Thailand and Singapore. (When destinations within India develop, that will also divert some tourism- but the sheer numbers of Indians means this is not a worry for Europe, USA , Singapore or UAE and others anytime soon!) 

Just some ideas but no quick solutions. As the massive middle classes of India , China and Asia in general prosper, they will travel. Its a human need. But the numbers can, and will, overwhelm. Destinations need to deal with it. 

I intend to analyze interconnected, historical and economic issues related to tourism and travel going ahead- watch this space.